What are the biggest shifts you’re seeing in consumer behavior right now that weren’t as present before?

The biggest shift is that shoppers treat every price as a starting point and verify it before they trust it. They check another retailer, look for a promo code, see what cash back is available and consider whether the price will drop if they wait. In RetailMeNot’s Q4 survey, 90% of shoppers said they combine more than one way to save on the same purchase at least sometimes, and 63% do it always or often. Stacking is the default now, and it goes beyond putting one discount on top of another. Shoppers combine whatever sources of value they can find—a promo code, cash back, loyalty rewards—to lower the total cost of the purchase.

The second shift is patience. Shoppers have learned the promotional calendar. 58% told us they treat Black Friday as a month-long season and buy whenever a good deal shows up, and only 17% still wait for the actual weekend. Urgency only works on them when it’s real. Most of the time they assume a better price is coming, so they wait for it.

How are consumers deciding whether a price or promotion is actually a good deal, and what does that mean for how retailers present pricing?

They're doing more math than most retailers assume. Seventy-nine percent of shoppers in our survey said they're at least somewhat confident they can tell whether a sale is a real deal. When we asked what matters most in the moment, best overall value came out ahead of lowest possible price, 25% to 19%. They weigh whether the whole purchase makes sense, and the size of the discount is only one input.

For retailers, this means your price gets compared in real time against everywhere else and against what you charged last month. When a promotion looks like an inflated original price marked back down, shoppers see it, and it costs trust you don't win back easily. Steady, honest pricing holds up better than a dramatic markdown that invites a second look. The shopper is checking your work.

What do retailers get wrong about how people hunt for value now?

The mistake is picturing the old coupon-clipper chasing the lowest number and designing promotions for the old shopper. A single big percentage off assumes the customer is looking at your price in isolation.

Today's shopper is running a comparison across several tabs before buying, and AI is making that research faster and easier. They're stacking your offer against everything else available and asking whether the final number is the best they can do. Once you understand that they're assembling the deal themselves, you can build an offer that plays well with everything else in their cart, which is what gets picked.

What are the signs a promotion is landing versus being ignored or distrusted?

When the people using an offer are mostly your existing regulars, the promotion is discounting revenue you already had. They were going to buy anyway. A promotion is doing real work when it pulls in someone new, a first purchase or a lapsed shopper coming back.

The bigger warning sign right now is distrust. A large share of shoppers already question whether a sale is a real deal, and the most common reason they give is an original price that looks inflated. A discount that looks manufactured can do worse than fail to convert. It confirms the suspicion and makes your next promotion land softer. And when a promotion has to get bigger each time to pull the same response, you've trained people to wait for it, and that's rented demand that leaves the moment you stop discounting.

The suspicion shoppers carry didn't come from nowhere. They've watched original prices get inflated right before a sale, so they assume the game until a retailer gives them a reason not to.

The fastest route is to stop playing the game they're bracing for. Hold a stable regular price. When you do promote, make the starting price honest and the discount real, and say plainly why the sale exists. Show the math when you can. A store that lets a shopper feel smart for buying, instead of worried they missed a lower price somewhere, builds trust that survives a slow quarter. It moves slower than a flash sale, and it's worth far more.

If a small retailer can't win on the lowest price, where can it still win the shopper?

On relevance and relationship. A small retailer doesn't need to beat a giant marketplace on every price if it can make the shopping experience feel more personal. Know what your customers want, make recommendations that feel tailored to them and give loyal customers a reason to come back. A personalized offer or a loyalty perk can be more compelling than another generic 20% off promotion because it feels like value designed for that shopper.

Certainty is another advantage. Be the place where the shopper doesn't have to hunt to feel good about the purchase. If the price is fair, the recommendation is relevant and the loyalty benefits are clear, the shopper has less reason to open five more tabs.

Curation matters too. A thoughtful bundle or specific recommendation is harder to price-check against a giant marketplace because it isn't just the same item sitting in a cheaper cart somewhere else. The opportunity for a small retailer is to know the shopper better than scale ever can.

How should small retailers think about promotional frequency without devaluing their brand?

The real cost of frequency is memory. Shoppers learn your cadence fast, and once they know you go on sale every month, that sale price becomes the one they expect. Your regular price becomes a number nobody believes they should pay.

Give every promotion a reason. Seasonal timing, real overstock, an anniversary, a specific occasion. A reason tells the shopper this is the exception, which protects the price you charge the rest of the year. A sale with no reason does the opposite. It suggests the regular price was never real to begin with, and our data shows shoppers are already suspicious of exactly that. Fewer, clearer, well-explained promotions beat a constant drip of discounts. You want people buying because they want the thing, on a schedule you set rather than one they've learned to game.

If an independent retailer could make one shift in pricing or promotion strategy, what would you advise?

Own the value equation. Price is only one part of what a shopper is weighing. The most valuable position a small retailer can hold right now is being the place where a shopper feels confident they're getting the best overall value, even if it isn't the lowest price. Shoppers aren't always choosing the cheapest option. They might pay more for faster shipping, choose a free gift or loyalty points, or value a service or perk that makes the purchase feel more worthwhile. The question worth answering is simple. Does the shopper understand why you're the best value for them?

In practice, set a regular price you can stand behind and defend it, instead of propping it up with a constant stream of promo codes. Then build value around it through relevant promotions, loyalty benefits, free perks, convenience and personalization. Be clear about what something costs and what the shopper gets in return. Shoppers are increasingly good at judging the whole purchase.

The retailers that win are the ones that make it easy for a shopper to see the value in choosing them.